10Y and 2Y Treasury Yields vs Bitcoin
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Gold vs Real 10-Year Yields
Bond & Treasury Yields
The positive correlation between gold and inverse real yields is clearly visible throughout most periods. When the inverse real yield line is above zero (meaning actual real yields are negative), gold tends to perform well as there is no real return from holding bonds after accounting for inflation. Conversely, when the inverse real yield line is below zero (meaning actual real yields are positive), gold faces headwinds. The dramatic spike in inverse real yields during 2020-2021 (when actual real yields plunged deeply negative) coincided perfectly with gold reaching near-record highs above $2,000/oz.
US Interest Payments vs Bitcoin
Credit & Debt
Interest payments on US federal debt remained relatively stable between 2010-2021 despite growing debt, due to historically low interest rates. However, following the Fed's aggressive rate hikes in 2022-2023 to combat inflation, interest payments surged to record levels. This dramatic increase in debt servicing costs occurred during a period when Bitcoin was recovering from its 2022 bear market, potentially reflecting growing concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability.