Gold vs Real 10-Year Yields
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10Y and 2Y Treasury Yields vs Bitcoin
Bond & Treasury Yields
The chart captures several yield curve inversions—where 2-year yields exceed 10-year yields—which have historically preceded recessions. Notable inversions occurred in 2019 (before the COVID recession) and a deeper, more persistent inversion in 2022-2023. Bitcoin's performance during these periods has been mixed: it rallied throughout much of the 2019 inversion but struggled during the 2022 inversion as the Fed aggressively raised rates. The zero-bound period of 2020-2021, when yields were at historic lows near 0%, coincided with Bitcoin's strongest bull market, suggesting that ultra-low yields may benefit Bitcoin by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Stocks vs Gold and Silver
Market
The percentage growth format clearly reveals distinct eras of asset class dominance. The early-to-mid 20th century shows steady but modest growth across all assets. The 1970s inflationary period dramatically stands out, with gold and especially silver showing explosive percentage gains that far exceeded stock market returns during this decade. From the 1980s onward, the secular stock bull market becomes apparent, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 showing superior long-term percentage gains compared to precious metals, though gold and silver exhibit periodic surges during financial stress periods.