Buffett Indicator
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S&P500 vs Bitcoin - YoY
Market
Major market events are clearly visible on this chart. During the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, both assets briefly showed negative YoY returns, but Bitcoin rebounded much more dramatically while the S&P 500 returned to modest positive territory. The 2022 bear market saw both assets decline in tandem, highlighting increased correlation during stress periods. Bitcoin's YoY performance has consistently shown much higher highs (during 2017 and 2021 bull runs) and lower lows (in bear markets) compared to the S&P 500's more modest fluctuations.
Stocks vs Gold and Silver
Market
The percentage growth format clearly reveals distinct eras of asset class dominance. The early-to-mid 20th century shows steady but modest growth across all assets. The 1970s inflationary period dramatically stands out, with gold and especially silver showing explosive percentage gains that far exceeded stock market returns during this decade. From the 1980s onward, the secular stock bull market becomes apparent, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 showing superior long-term percentage gains compared to precious metals, though gold and silver exhibit periodic surges during financial stress periods.
Financial Stress Index vs Bitcoin
Market
The most dramatic spike in the Financial Stress Index occurred during the March 2020 COVID-19 market panic, when it briefly exceeded levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis. Bitcoin crashed substantially during this acute stress period but recovered much faster than traditional markets once the Fed intervened with unprecedented stimulus. Earlier stress episodes like the 2018 Q4 market correction also saw Bitcoin decline alongside rising financial stress. The 2023 regional banking crisis (Silicon Valley Bank failure) caused a smaller stress spike, during which Bitcoin actually rallied, potentially indicating an evolution in its market perception toward being a beneficiary of banking system stress.